We have all seen pharmaceutical commercials on TV where a listing of common side effects may include diarrhea, nausea and drowsiness. In today's financial markets, central banks are expanding their balance sheets by trillions of dollars annually and new side effects are on the way. This week saw a new milestone in the world of negative interest rates, when Henkel and Sanofi became the first public companies to sell new Euro bonds for more than the buyers will get back.
The invisible hand of central bankers and government intervention
The financial markets are guided by supply and demand conditions for stocks and bonds. Historically, their fluctuations have been heavily influenced by business conditions and economic cycles. During the past 12-15 months something new and different has dominated the marketplace. Unorthodox governmental forces are the engine that drives the financial markets which seem totally insensitive to any negative economic developments.
First Quarter 2015 in Review: International markets melt up
I'm not sure where the first three months of the year went, perhaps they are still buried in Boston's snow piles. Wherever the time disappeared to, the central bankers took center stage in the first quarter and their actions dominated financial markets. The European Central Bank joined the QE party to the tune of at least 1.1 trillion Euros to be spent over the next 18 months. The Bank of Japan continues their monetary experiment of Abenomics and there is increasing speculation that they will push the dial further on stimulus which could last for the next 3+ years. Meanwhile economists in the US speculate on when the Fed will make their first rate hike. We don't expect a rate hike anytime in 2015, and maybe not even in 2016, thanks to low levels of inflation and slowing GDP growth.
Show Me the Money: Where did the Fed’s QE money go?
Most people believe that when the stock market is going up, the economy must be doing well. The argument was generally true in the 20th century. Now a days, things are different in the era of the New Normal. So far in the 21st century, when both the bond and stock markets are cheering, the economy may actually be slowing or operating below trend.
Will Fear of Deflation Bring More Quantitative Easing?
In January 2012, the Fed outlined its 2 percent goal for inflation. But despite buying more than $4 trillion in bonds since 2008, inflation has remained stubbornly below that goal. Because of this I am beginning to wonder if the Fed will consider turning quantitative easing back on for another round of asset purchases in 2015.
The bond bull market is alive and kicking
2013 was a brutal year for bond bulls. After Ben Bernanke mentioned the word taper in May, bond investors rushed for the door. From June to December 2013, bond mutual funds saw staggering outflows of $176.8 billion. Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund posted a 1.9% decline, its first down year since 1999. That fund saw its assets shrink by over $41 billion in 2013. Many proclaimed that the bond bull market was over and left for dead.