interest rates Archives - Runnymede Capital Management

Andrew Wang and Nick Colas on What Rising Interest Rates Mean for Banks

Andrew Wang and Nick Colas provide their respective outlooks for the financial sector, including some names they like moving forward in 2021.

Finding safe returns in a zero interest rate environment

The Federal Reserve recently signaled that it's likely to keep interest rates at zero through 2023. This is bad news for savers and retirees who are looking for a safe place to park their cash. Gone are the days where you could leave money in a bank to earn 4-5%. In response, investors have been forced to take more risk, often investing in lower quality bonds or more stocks. Faced with a weakened economy from a global pandemic and an uncertain Presidential election, where can retirees look for a safe return? One potential solution is multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGAs).

Investing in the Upside Down

“If we’re both going crazy, then we’ll go crazy together, right?” — Mike, Stranger Things

In today's world, it feels like we are all going crazy when you deal with the upside down world of negative interest rates. While negative rates haven't landed in the US yet, the 30-year Treasury rate fell below 2% for the first time ever. It is likely inevitable that we will have to deal with the situation in the not too distant future. So what is life like in the upside down?

Prepare for negative rates in the US

Back in 2016, we wrote “Watch out! Negative interest rate policy is coming to the US sooner than later.” To us, the future feels inevitable with virtually all the other developed nations in negative territory again in 2019. PIMCO's Joachim Fels echoed this thought saying that it's “no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative.”

Yield curve inverts again

This morning, the much watched yield curve has inverted for the 2nd time with 10-year Treasury yields (2.27%) dropping below 3 month T-bill rates (2.36%). Many view the yield curve inverting as an early signal of recession. For those that view the glass as being half full, most people look for the 10 year vs the 2 year inversion and that hasn't occurred yet. Secondly, once the inversion takes place, the market often doesn't peak until months later. For those that view the glass as half empty, the inversion is a sign that the bull market is nearing an end.

Ballooning US debt poses huge risks ahead

Today, Blackrock's CEO Larry Fink warned investors that the US is heading towards a “supply problem” as the widening budget deficit, expected to top $1 trillion annually starting in 2019, requires more borrowing. This is an issue that investors have never seen before. Typically government spending is restrained at the end of an economic expansion; however, this administration is stepping on the accelerator with neither party emphasizing fiscal responsibility. This could pose a huge problem if a recession hits over the next couple of years.