Earlier this week, we said that the market may be predicting another Trump upset, but another indicator is predicting our incumbent president's loss. The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 performance from July 31 to October 31. Going back to 1944, it has found that a positive move over that period usually translates to an incumbent victory, while a negative move translates to a loss.
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