At the recent Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, vice chairman Charlie Munger said that he thinks that stock market investors may be able to find better investment opportunities in China. He said, “I do think the Chinese stock market is cheaper than the American stock market. And I do think China has a bright future.”
Grantham: This isn’t a bubble
Whenever markets reach new highs, it is inevitable that people begin to ponder if this is a top or even worse, a bubble. This led the WSJ to ask famed investor Jeremy Grantham point blank, “Is the US market in a bubble or is it different this time?” His response is certainly worth a few minutes of your time.
Happy Birthday! Bull market in stocks turns 8.
The bull market in stocks celebrates its eighth birthday today. As it turns out, it's also my birthday. This got me thinking about what was happening in the world when I turned 8. In 1980, the Pac-Man arcade game was released. Camcorders and fax machines were cutting edge technology. A whole lot of people were watching TV to find out Who Shot JR? on the popular soap Dallas. The yearly inflation rate in the U.S. was 13.6%. The average cost of a new house was $68,700. The average cost of a new car was $13,650. I'll also mention that a (government subsidized) hot school lunch cost $0.65 and milk was $0.05. Okay, enough about me.
Systematically Tracking Financial Weather Conditions
In the travel industry, prevention of accidents is at the top of its agenda. Safety drills for airplane takeoffs and landings are routinely practiced. On ships, passengers are assembled for lifeboat drills as soon as they board the vessel. Every passenger’s name is called out and checked off; both the passengers and crew take the drill very seriously in view of the fact that just a few years ago the Italian ship Costa Concordia ran aground on the coast of Tuscany and toppled on its side. Ship captains and sailors are in constant touch with weather stations, downloading data into their computers for the most up-to-date weather forecast and analysis.
They Say The Sky Is Clear, We Say Take Cover
Bubbles are the only things that matter. The rest of it is boring. You show up for work, markets are at normal levels, and there's not much you can do. It's all trivial. But in a great bubble you can get your clients' arses out of the way, and the money you can save can be quite legendary.”” – Jeremy Grantham
The financial services industry generally frowns upon market prognosticators. “”Stay the course,”” they say. This is especially true in recent years since passive investments have outperformed active ones. Admittedly, peering into one's financial crystal ball and voicing an opinion can be a risky endeavor. Besides the obvious risk of being wrong, another risk is being labeled a perma-bull or perma-bear. In article after article that I read, the media loves to turn to its favorite go-to bulls and go-to bears for an appropriate quote. Unfortunately, few individuals are permitted to change their minds and even fewer do it well.
At Runnymede, we do a lot of research, and our view is dynamic, not fixed. Ultimately, our market outlook is reflected in the positioning of our clients' portfolios.
3 Bubble Warnings to Listen to Before It’s Too Late
It's time to listen to the best and brightest. The world's economies are stagnant or weakening while the stock market is overvalued. The time has come to be conservative. Most investment firms do not place importance on asset protection. Runnymede is an exception; we take asset protection very seriously. As such, we devote much time to market analysis and will make changes when necessary depending on our clients' objectives.
Here are 3 bubble warnings that experts are telling you to take note of right now.