Andrew Wang returned to Market Overtime with Nicole Petallides to discuss the impact of rising inflation on your long-term portfolio.
S&P on track to post best earnings since 2014
As we move past Election Day, financial markets should be able to refocus on what truly matters: company fundamentals. This should serve as a catalyst to push equity prices higher with earnings finally back on the rise. It has been a tough period for earnings because of the strength in the US Dollar and extreme volatility in crude oil prices. This trend appears to have finally stabilized. The energy sector is expected to post a flat quarter after posting huge losses for the previous four quarters.
Will S&P earnings drive the market to new heights?
Runnymede made one of the earliest calls on the corporate earnings recession in February of 2015. S&P earnings have been flat out terrible for 5 of the last 6 quarters with double-digit declines. However last quarter, the S&P showed signs of turning the corner. Analysts had forecast 10% growth heading into the first quarter but companies still fell well short of that mark for essentially a flat quarter. As 2nd quarter earnings season kicks off, analysts are even more bullish with S&P reported earnings growth forecast at 15%. While we do not expect this number to be that great, if it can even show high single digit growth, it could very well prove to be a catalyst for stocks to hit new highs.
The Global Bear Market has Reached US Soil
You are probably aware that the US markets are off to their worst start in recorded history. However, many media commentators are bear market deniers and believe that there isn't a bear market at all. Stocks will go up forever. If there is a correction, deniers believe that the Fed will just restart its quantitative easing programs, and stocks will continue their ascent to infinity.
I'm sorry to tell you that if you look at the data, the global financial markets are already in a deep bear market, and the world central banks have been ineffective in printing their economies out of recession. Today, I believe that the US is being pulled down by international forces beyond our control. Therefore, the US economy is likely headed for recession in 2016. Let's take a quick look around the world to see the carnage.
S&P earnings to suffer annual decline for first time since 2008
At Runnymede, we firmly believe that earnings matter. It's earnings that drive stock prices higher or lower over the long term. So it is important to monitor what is happening to the overall earnings picture. In February, I wrote a blog post entitled, Where have all the (S&P) earnings gone? Back then street estimates had been reduced significantly but still predicted 5% growth for 2015.
Today the earnings picture is clearer with most of the S&P 500 constituents having reported for the first half. The results aren't pretty. Thanks to the crash in energy prices and the strong US Dollar, S&P 500 earnings declined in the first half and are on pace for their first year over year decline since 2008. In hindsight, S&P earnings experienced peak earnings in the 3rd quarter of 2014 with a record high 10.1% operating margin; and have been declining thereafter.