With our world getting smaller daily, it is imperative to keep one's eyes and ears open to what's happening in global economies, especially the world's second largest economy. On May 24th, I attended the 2017 Peking University Guanghua New York Forum at the New York Public Library. The forum featured renowned speakers re-imagining China’s business landscape for an audience of 200 Chinese and international industry leaders, academics, and innovators to discuss, debate, and exchange ideas. Here are the highlights.
Financial weather: Central bankers creating clear skies
In 2008, the brokers and bankers made a huge mess in the subprime mortgage markets and caused the deepest recession in decades. The finanical crisis cost the tax payers trillions of dollars to bail out the failed financial firms and to restart the nation’s economic growth engine. The message during the market recovery to Wall Street from the central bank and the government has been “don’t mess with the financial markets to cause another market crash.” The media and many pundits haven't got the message and are still writing very frequently about the impending market crash. With the recent news on Greece, the media went all out to scare people but we wrote that investors shouldn't be surprised given Greece's history of debt problems. The S&P 500 shrugged off the negative news and barely declined at all, a pullback of just 3%. Looking at the trend, you’ll notice that the S&P 500 has been trading sideways at 2080 plus or minus a few points in a narrow range since November 2014.
What a Greek bankruptcy means to your investment portfolio
A potential Greek bankruptcy has dominated the headlines over the past couple of weeks and this Sunday is a crucial referendum to decide their fate. The Greek PM Alexis Tsipras today urged its citizens to reject an international bailout deal. Many economists and investors are now expecting a bankruptcy in the near term. The big question for investors is: what does a Greek bankruptcy mean to my investment portfolio?
Follow the Loser: The Abnormal Behavior of Central Bankers
In sports, business or most avenues of life, people are encouraged to learn, imitate or follow the winners. In golf, we want to learn from Rory Mcllroy, Adam Scott or Phil Mickelson. In tennis, we want to emulate Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. To this motivational wisdom of following the winners, there is one exception, however. Central bankers seem to like to follow the loser.
Quantitative Easing (“QE”), creating money to buy bonds issued by the government, was first used by the Bank of Japan in the early part of the 2000’s. Japan was once known as the land of technological and engineering marvels, but more recently it has become known as one of the worst-managed economies in the world. The lost decades of the 1990’s/2000’s have extended into the 21st century, with subpar economic growth, Fukushima radiation out of control and a declining population amongst the list of negative trends.