central banks Archives - Page 3 of 9 - Runnymede Capital Management

How does the Fed rate hike affect my stock portfolio?

Today the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the 3rd time this year to 2.25%. This is good news for your savings account as you are likely to see a slight boost in your interest rates; but that is no guarantee as many major banks are still paying close to zero. More importantly, you may be wondering what impact the rate hike has on your investment portfolio, especially stocks. Is this a reason for concern?

Trump goes with safe pick for next Fed chair

President Trump made a safe pick for the next Fed Chair in Jerome Powell. This isn't the typical Trumpian move as he didn't make a non-traditional pick to replace Janet Yellen. We recently wrote about the possibility of John Taylor and viewed it as unlikely because Taylor would likely want to raise rates faster than the current Fed.

Taylor rule could spike interest rates higher

President Trump is said to be considering tapping Stanford economist John Taylor as the next Fed Chairman. If Taylor gets the nod, it is possible that the Fed adopts the Taylor rule to set the Fed funds rates. The so-called Taylor rule is a formula that he proposed in 1993 for setting the federal funds rate — the overnight bank lending rate used by the Fed to fight inflation or stimulate the economy. It challenges the Fed’s traditional reliance on the Federal Open Market Committee’s ad hoc judgment.

Alan Greenspan warns of ‘irrational exuberance’ in bonds

Last Friday on CNBC, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that it's fair to characterize the current bond bubble as an “irrational exuberance” type of forecast. He did hedge the statement by saying that he has “no time frame on the forecast.” Also note that he started making this bond bubble call in 2015.

Next Fed Chair: Yellen, Cohn, or other

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Trump is considering renominating Janet Yellen as Fed Chair but also views his economic adviser Gary Cohn as a top candidate. The president has changed his tune since the election season when he criticized Yellen repeatedly. Now he says that he thinks she is doing a good job and has “a lot of respect for her.” Cohn would represent a dramatic shift away from an academic led Fed to a savvy business leader in Cohn who had a 26 year career at Goldman Sachs.

Will interest rates rise sharply as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet?

I usually reserve Friday blog posts for lighter topics but with the FOMC meeting this week, I think it is important to touch on the Fed‘s plan to shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. While the announcement was widely expected, it spelled out in greater detail plans to slowly unwind the Fed's sizable bond holdings. We believe that this step is very positive alongside interest rate hikes. The economy is doing well enough that the Fed can step back from its emergency measures, thus saving ammo for the next recession. We do not believe that this will cause a spike in long term rates but will monitor the situation closely.